When evaluating an investment, most investors consider rate of return as an important criterion. Thus when presented with an investment proposal, the first question usually asked is the “rate of return”. Rate of return of investment is often linked to a certain period of time.
All investors are confronted with the big question of how much the rate of return should be. What is the appropriate or ideal rate of return against which all investments can be measured? For example, your bank suggests you put your money into a time deposit account which pays 5% rate of return compounded annually, how can you tell if it is good investment with a good rate of return?
We need to take into account three important factors to answer that question properly: inflation, taxation and the highest rate of return for what is considered as the “safest investment”.
To begin with, what is inflation? Wikipedia says it is “a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time”. Inflation nibbles at the value of money. Your P1000 now may not be worth much 20 years from now because of rising prices of good and services. Your P1,000 three years from now won’t be able to buy the things you can buy for P1,000 today.
The second item in consideration is taxation. It needs no discussion as everybody knows taxes. Tax rates vary as it all depends on who is in power.
The third consideration is the highest rate of return for what is believed as the “safest investment” which is, of course, government bonds. These are considered very safe by the very fact that they are fully backed by the government. Since it is unlikely for a government to go bankrupt except when it is in political turmoil, it is inconceivable that it would renege on its obligation.
Together, these three factors will come into play when computing for the ideal rate of return.
In the book “Buffetology”, Mary Buffett and David Clark elaborate on the interplay between these three factors. The author reports that Warren Buffett, one of the world’s richest persons and greatest stock market investor, declares that the minimum rate of return of investment should not fall below 15%. In Chapter 25 of the book, the author wrote that just to absorb inflation and taxation, you need a 7.2% return on investment. Therefore, “to have a real increase in your wealth, it is necessary that the return on your wealth be at least equal to the effects of taxation and inflation”.
Discussing further the effect of inflation and taxation on the rate of return, the author wrote that investing in bonds with an annual compounding rate of return of 8% would probably net a rate of return of only 0.5% (8% less 31% income tax, less 5% inflation). Or zero rate of return even, should the inflation rate rise to 9%. For this reason, if the annual rate of return offered falls below 8%, it does not make sense to invest, government bonds or not.
Warren Buffett believes in the having a “wide margin of safety”. That is the reason why he insists on a 15% rate of return. Net of inflation and taxes, he is assured with a growth of about 8% rate of return compounded annually.
Why are we looking at government bonds in particular? Government bonds are known to be the safest investment giving the highest possible rate of return. It is therefore the best yardstick against which all investments should be measured. If an investment promises only an 8% rate of return on investment, it makes more sense to invest in a government bond that guarantees 8% return rather than risking it in other investments. On the other hand, if a certain investment has a rate of return of over and above 15%, then by all means put your money there instead of in government bonds.
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