Back Testing Your Trading System-Know These Shocking Limitations

Your trading system needs thorough testing before you decide to trade live with it. A trading system might comprise of a set of indicators. You need to know how well your trading system and its set of indicators work in a particular market.

For this you can do back testing. Back testing is a method that uses historical data to test how well your indicators work in a particular market. You can use back testing software that enables you to look at the past market data and test how well the indicators and your trading system have worked in the past market.

Now, back testing is done with historical data. What this means is that although your trading system might perform very well with back testing, it may not work in the present market. Market conditions keep on changing and what worked in the past may not work in the present. In the same way, what didn’t work in the past may start working now.

In other words, no two trades work out in exact the same way twice. SO you have to be careful when looking at the back testing results and take it with a pinch of salt. However, there are still some advantages of back testing a trading system.

Back testing can give you a feel how a particular market behaves under certain conditions. Back testing can also spot you certain general characteristics of the market like the seasonal trends and market tendencies.

For example, some markets especially the commodities market is highly seasonal and cyclical in nature. Now in other markets, you might not find any seasonal trends. For example, there is very little seasonality in curreny market or the bond market. In case of the stock market, there is much talk of the January Effect. Well, it is there no doubt about it. Some years, it is highly pronounced and others it is not that pronounced. Similarly stock prices tend to rise at the end of each month and the first few days of the new months. The reason for this is that many institutional investors tend to put the new funds to work at the end of the month and the beginning of the new month!

Back testing can also help you establish the amount of time a particular market tends to run in a certain direction. For example, in case of US Dollar Index, its trend lines tend to last for months to years.

Now when you back test your trading system and the set of indicators, you can check their accuracy. For example, if you using a trading system based on moving average crossovers, you can back test it using different combinations. Then monitor each combination under live conditions to see which works the best.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Download this 1 Minute Forex Trading System FREE that makes money anytime instantly! Read this shocking FREE 40 page PDF FRWC Brutal Truth Report that exposes everything about trading robots!

Leverage Your Investments For Greater Rewards

Leverage is a term used in investment circles to explain a type of borrowing. Its investment jargon, so it may sound complex. Its simply describes the process of borrowing to invest, where there is some kind of security underpinning the borrowing. This could be a house in a property loan, or stocks in a margin loan.

This article covers the general principles of leveraging your investments. If it is something you are considering but have never done before, discuss your ideas with a licensed financial adviser. They will ensure you are structured correctly and can minimise your risk and exposure.

Before I understood money, my debt profile looked very similar to most peoples. I had a credit card which I always struggled to get back to zero, I had a large personal loan for a car I bought and a smaller loan for some furniture.

All these debts were used to fund consumables – objects for my pleasure. I learned that there are two issues with this. Firstly, the objects this debt bought all rapidly lost value. They were depreciating assets. Secondly, as I used the debt to purchase things I consumed, the interest on that debt had no tax benefits. I had to pay it all.

Today, due to the many benefits I found you get when you borrowing to invest, my debt profile is anything but typical. I now have much more debt, but I have borrowed to buy appreciating and income generating assets. For example, I have a massive debt on a property in Victoria, Australia. I also have a reasonable size margin loan helping me make money in a successful stock trading strategy. And finally, as per all foreign exchange trading accounts, I have an account which is leveraged out (and heavily too, at 400:1 – so every $1 I put in allows me to invest $400). My debt on consumables on the other hand is negligible.

Why is it more efficient to use your borrowings for investing then?

Firstly, when you borrow to invest, you are “using other people’s money” to earn more money in the investment markets. A great example of this is in our FX Trading strategy. If I invest $10,000.00 and leverage it out at 400:1 that means I have $4,000,000 invested. This above example describes very well the first benefit of leverage. By accessing more money to invest, you can earn way higher returns on your investments than you otherwise would have been able to.

The second benefit you can get from borrowing to invest is a possible tax benefit. In my situation where I have borrowed to purchase an investment property in Victoria, as I rent out that property and earn an income from it, the interest payments on that mortgage become a cost associated with that income. As such, in my circumstance, I can claim those interest payments as a tax deduction. This means that while my asset is making me money, the tax office is actually giving me a discount on my borrowing by making it tax deductible

Margin loans work in exactly the same way. I have some stocks and I borrow some money using them as collateral. I typically try and keep a 50% leverage ratio, every dollar of stocks I own lets me borrow and invest another dollar. So I end up with a stock portfolio double the size I could have bought with my own money, I earn the returns on the entire portfolio, but pay interest on the money I have borrowed. Because I borrowed to earn money on stocks, the interest is tax deductible for me.

So there is definitely an argument for borrowing to invest where you can, instead of borrowing to fund personal purchases. There are risks associated with leverage too though you need to be aware of.

So what are the risks associated with borrowing for investment purposes? One of the obvious risks relates to your financial capacity. There is the risk you over-extend yourself and cannot meet the repayment obligations on your loans. When taking out a loan, you need to be sure you can pay the loan repayments.

Margin loans are a little bit different. They are set up so you are allowed to borrow a certain proportion of the value of the stocks held in the margin loan. The risk here is that if the value of your stock decreases rapidly and pushes your margin loan outside those boundaries, you will receive a margin call. The margin call will force you to repay a significant part of your margin loan debt, to ensure it is again within the stipulated proportion of your stock values. This can often be difficult as it requires you to fund the debt when you had not budgeted money to do so.

Finally there is the investment risk. When you borrow to invest, you do so with the intention that the income earned from the money you invest, exceeds the interest the borrowing accrues. If the interest is higher than the investment earnings, you are losing money.

All risks with investing can be mitigated with strategy. That is why it is so important to speak to a licensed financial adviser before you invest and especially before you borrow to invest. So if you are considering leverage, speak to an adviser about risk mitigation. Leveraging your investments can definitely be financially rewarding, but only when you properly understand and manage your risk and when it is backed up by a consistently high performing investment strategy.

Gnifrus Urquart has had significant success investing over the years. As such, he enjoys reviewing investment strategies and offering trading tips to others interested in investing

Trading And Seasonality In The Markets

The next best holiday bets are the Labor Day and the Memorial Day because they fall before the first day of trading in September and June respectively. The day before the Presidents day is the worst day and the day after the Easter is the worst day after. However, you should keep in mind that a lot of other factors also come into play and you have a lot of room for error.

The best time of the year to own stocks is the Santa Claus rally which for all practical purposes is the 17 day stretch from December 21 to January 7. This is the best time of the year. Most of the folks usually feel fairly good about themselves around this time of the year.

FED always wants the consumer confidence high during this part of the year. The more shopping the consumers are going to do, the more companies are going to sell and earn. The more companies earn, the more their stock prices go up.FED tends to lower interest rates during holidays in order to go into the New Year with less of a worry if the economy is slowing down. There is a low trading volume which tends to exaggerate the trend if the economy is not doing well and is slowing down. However, when you are dealing with seasonality, you should keep these facts in your mind:

1) The market is not longer static. Money has no borders now. With one mouse click money is transferred from one locality to another. The seasonal effect may get interrupted by other events. More and more people have real time access to information and larger amounts of capital than at any time in the past.

2) At the end of the year, institutional investors want to make their results look as good as possible to their shareholders and tend to buy the stocks and so on. Institutional investors like mutual funds, hedge funds and insurance companies have become important players in the markets. So in case of an event free environment, seasonal tendencies may hold up fairly well.

3) The days of long term investing or what you call buy and hold are dead! Frequent market crashes have taught the investing public that investing for the long term is fairly risky. So there is more short term trading going on. These are the times for day traders and swing traders. With fewer people willing to hold stocks for longer periods, it is very difficult to predict seasonality.

4) The recent market crash was the result of CMO and Default Swaps bringing down the banks and Insurance companies in ways that had not been anticipated or foreseen by the analysts. Many had assumed that derivate securities are safe. Infact they have highly unpredictable tendencies. Derivates and outside the market trading activities can result in highly unpredictable patterns.

Then there is a change in demographics also taking place. With the aging of the population, the overall trend will be towards more income producing investments. So with everyone talking about the seasonal tendencies in the market, it reliability becomes less diminished.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Try This 1500 Pips A Day Forex Signal Service! Know These Candlestick Patterns!

The Wonders of Credit Card Processing

Owning a small business can be a risky thing to do. For some it may even seem like certain doom is lurking around every corner. With competitive markets, bank foreclosures, and the risk of going bankrupt a small business owner must do what he or she can to stay in business. One sure fire way to ensure your company will flourish is to take full advantage of credit card processing and obtaining a merchant account from your local bank.

There are many steps a small business owner must complete before they are granted a merchant account. First you must get in contact with your local bank and ask to speak to a representative. They will inform you on whether or not that particular bank offers merchant accounts to small businesses. If you are not accepted by the bank you can easily get a merchant account from a third party provider. These organizations offer similar services at fair prices.

If your bank does offer merchant accounts to small businesses you then have to meet each requirement. Firstly you will need to prove that you are conducting business and give a tour of your workspace to a bank representative. If you work out of home make sure to secure a separate room for your home office.

You may have to submit paperwork to a company considering giving you a merchant account as well. This is to verify that are you are real business making a profit or losing money. The bank will want a copy of your tax return from the previous year as well as complete access to your bank account to deposit or withdraw funds from your account.

The rates of most merchant accounts are anywhere from 2-3% tax on each transaction you make. Many dishonest companies charge 5% and more on transactions. If you keep shopping around you will not be stuck with choosing such a company.

The benefits to owning a merchant account are immeasurable. You are now able to charge clients for your service on their debit/bank cards. Fewer individuals are carrying around cash because of the ease of online and electronic banking. You can comply with the needs of anyone who wants to pay for your service with their card.

Businesses can actually lose customers if they dont have a merchant account. Sometimes when a person doesnt have cash they will simply refuse to take out money and pay for an item. It is not rare for a person to walk out of a business when learning they only accept cash. To be on the cutting edge small businesses must be able to receive all forms of payment.

There is no reason to not start a merchant account with your local bank. Your company will thrive with all the customers you are acquiring with the new technology. Guaranteeing youll stay in business for a long time.

Leverage – Is This A Strategy For You?

Leverage is a term used in investment circles to explain a type of borrowing. Its investment jargon, so it may sound complex. Its simply describes the process of borrowing to invest, where there is some kind of security underpinning the borrowing. This could be a house in a property loan, or stocks in a margin loan.

This article is all about the risks and rewards of borrowing to invest, or leveraging investment strategies. The information is general in nature and not intended as specific advice. As always, if you intend borrowing to invest, seek licensed financial advice before you do.

10 years ago, my borrowing habits were what I would call “typical” in today’s society. I had a credit card, which ranged between $0.00 to about $4,000.00 in debt. I had a small personal loan which I bought some furniture with and I had a larger personal loan which I financed a car purchase with.

The problems with these types of debt are two fold. To start with, the items I bought when I borrowed are all depreciating items. That is, their value decreases as they get older. The second thing is, due to the fact that I borrowed to buy things I could use personally, (as opposed to a money making use) I could not claim the interest on the borrowings for tax purposes.

My debt profile today is very different to the one I had when I started learning about money. Today I use my credit card merely as a float which I pay off each month and all my personal loans are paid off. Despite this I carry much more debt than I did back then. I have a massive debt on a rental property I purchased. I have a reasonable sized margin loan for stock trading and I have an ever growing FOREX trading account. Most of my debt now funds investments, practically no debt funds consumables.

What is the logic then of borrowing to invest?

When you borrow to invest, you increase your investment earnings potential. As you borrow money, you have more to invest. Therefore, the returns on your investments increase by the net returns on the borrowed money. Obviously the basic key here is to ensure your investment return rate is higher than the interest rates on the loan. If this is the case, you will always make money with the money you have borrowed.

The second benefit you can get from borrowing to invest is a possible tax benefit. In my situation where I have borrowed to purchase an investment property in Victoria, as I rent out that property and earn an income from it, the interest payments on that mortgage become a cost associated with that income. As such, in my circumstance, I can claim those interest payments as a tax deduction. This means that while my asset is making me money, the tax office is actually giving me a discount on my borrowing by making it tax deductible

Margin loans work similarly. Basically I buy a bunch of stocks, fund 50% of the purchases myself and borrow the other 50% in a margin loan. This means I can double the size of my share portfolio and hopefully make a lot more money. Because I borrowed money though to buy the stocks which will make me money, the interest accrued in the margin loan is tax deductible.

So there is definitely an argument for borrowing to invest where you can, instead of borrowing to fund personal purchases. There are risks associated with leverage too though you need to be aware of.

The first risk with borrowing to invest is the same with all loans. Loans come with obligations. You need to be able to fund the repayments, both the principle and the interest. So you need to do your sums properly and work out whether your income can cover these repayments. If you mess this up and over-extend yourself, typically your lender will come and seize your goods and assets and sell them to get their money back. This is never a good position to be in.

Margin loans are a little bit different. They are set up so you are allowed to borrow a certain proportion of the value of the stocks held in the margin loan. The risk here is that if the value of your stock decreases rapidly and pushes your margin loan outside those boundaries, you will receive a margin call. The margin call will force you to repay a significant part of your margin loan debt, to ensure it is again within the stipulated proportion of your stock values. This can often be difficult as it requires you to fund the debt when you had not budgeted money to do so.

There is alway also the possibility that your trading strategy loses money. If this happens, because you borrowed so you could invest more, you lose more money.

All risks with investing can be mitigated with strategy. That is why it is so important to speak to a licensed financial adviser before you invest and especially before you borrow to invest. So if you are considering leverage, speak to an adviser about risk mitigation. Leveraging your investments can definitely be financially rewarding, but only when you properly understand and manage your risk and when it is backed up by a consistently high performing investment strategy.

Mutual Fund Risks and Perks

People who would like to invest in meaningful stocks or secure bonds quickly come to realize that their options are unfortunately limited. Face the facts; investments require a high capital, in general, that a lot of people cannot afford. Even the safest of investments still come with a risk factor, and between these costs for investing and the current volatile situation, a lot of people find that investing may not be worth the risk.

Mutual fund investing could be the solution to a lot of people’s problems. An investment company pools the cash of their shareholders, using their cash to make even bigger investments in stocks, bonds and other short-term agreements with a higher than normal yield. This is what a mutual fund is. To people that take part in mutual funds, this is the perfect way to begin in the world of investments.

That other people make the major decisions on where to invest your money is the one big drawback of a mutual fund. You don’t have a say where the money goes. It’s because of this that mutual funds are strictly monitored by federal mandates. The companies must be registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Plus, they have to give annual reports with information detailing where the monies are invested, as well as the amount of money in the account.

Mutual fund investing company managers are the ones that will act as brokers for the investors. It thus falls unto them to select the right stock, securities, and bonds both long term and short to purchase or sell. Because of this, a very extensive and thorough knowledge of market trends is required. After all, this person will be responsible for what could be the life savings of an individual. Mismanagement of someone else’s money is certainly not an option.

The stock market is highly volatile, with prices fluctuating drastically each day. Investors, especially in an economic time like this one, can lose big if corporations fail. Nevertheless, mutual funds remain as the average American’s best choice for financial security in the latter parts of his or her life.

Shopping For the best Investment Option

You’ve had that degree for a few years now, and you have been working non-stop since then. Chances are, you were able to build up your savings properly through the years. You haven’t bothered about that student loan ever since you paid it off for the first two years of your employment. A glance at your savings account then tells you that now are the time for an investment. I imagine you have no plans of being an employee forever.

Your mind is now made up, and you want to start investing. The next question, then, is how do you plan to invest that hard-earned cash? There are quite a number of investments that you may choose to involve yourself in, but know that you have to choose carefully. Here are some of the more popular choices out there:

*Starting your own business. This is one of the best options if you feel that you have an interest or hobby that you can capitalize on. But to be able to run a business adequately, you must have the ability to dedicate a lot of time to it. This is not the preferred option if you are currently employed.

*Stock investing. Stocks are perhaps the first thing that pops into the minds of people when they talk of investing. Having a share in the ownership of a big company is very evocative, and stocks have one of the best opportunities for high yield. Do not be quick to dismiss the possibility for havoc, though, that stocks could do to your savings if you don’t thread carefully.

*Bond investing. A bond is a debt security, where an authorized issuer borrows money from you. They will pay you back in parts semiannually. When compared to stocks, bonds are seen as the safer ways to invest, but it also gives out one of the lowest amounts of yield. You can, of course, make it more exciting by buying or selling bonds before it matures. Doing so may increase the profits, but doing so will also increase the risk factor.

*Get a mutual fund. These mutual funds are federal approved; the increased security is important because the managers of a mutual fund company will be the ones making the investment decisions for you. At the end of each year, an investor will get a report of where his or her money is, and how much it has grown. This is a very attractive choice for those that want to invest in something, but feel like they can’t afford to do it by themselves.

So those are some of the most popular investments for people who like to think forward. So long as you know what you’re doing, investing in any of these will help your money grow. Just don’t forget that patience is a virtue, and above all, have the sensibility to stick to your investments. Don’t back down at the slightest sign of trouble.

Spreading Out Your Investments

The science of investing and trading requires the understanding of many complex things should you plan to make it in that venture. If there is only one advice that I could give to someone who wants to go ahead and invest, though, it is this: Don’t bet it all on one fight. Spread out your portfolio; don’t settle for just one.

I fully understand that many people find the prospect of multiple investments close to impossible. As much as you want to spread out, you have to start in that first investment somewhere. Unfortunately for you, these investments usually start at a high price. In many cases, that price is too high for the average American. So, many beginning investors end up in the trap of putting it all in one stock anyway. This is a potentially devastating move. Everyone has experienced bad purchases in their careers. If you truly are shoehorned into that one investment, make sure that the potential loss is not going to be the end of your savings.

One alternative is to join in on a mutual fund account. Basically, mutual fund accounts are controlled by companies that collect investors? money. This collective sum is then used to make investments that can’t otherwise be afforded by any of the investors on their own. The company managers take the mantle of brokers that choose the best investments within the interest of their clients. The risk here is that if a manager screws up, then he or she will end up burning other people’s money.

Of course, you could also opt for a bond investment. By lending money to other entities with interest, bonds are preferred for the relative security of the transaction. Unfortunately, bonds carry with it the disadvantage of taking forever to see an income, and it will only yield a desirable profit if you started investing really early in your life, or if you trade bonds that have not yet reached its maturity.

To conclude, the goal of this article remains the same. Beginning investors should learn to spread out, either within the same type (like having multiple stocks), or by spreading your portfolio wider and having money on stocks, bonds, and mutual funds. It’s like storing your fruits in more than one basket: When one investment goes bad, the others will not be harmed.

Knowing Currency Correlations

Everything is interrelated in the forex markets. It is important for you to understand that the price action of each currency pair is not mutually exclusive.

Different currency pairs move relative to one another. You need to understand that different currency pairs are correlated. Correlation can be positive or negative.

Knowledge of the strength of this relationship and its direction can help you in developing your trading strategies. Correlation numbers have the potential to become a great trading tool for you.

Correlations are calculations based on past pricing data between different currency pairs. It is always a number between -1 and +1. These numbers can provide you with a lot of information that can maximize returns, minimize risk and help you avoid counter productive trading.

Lets make it clear with an example. Suppose USD/JPY and USD/CHF had a positive correlation of +0.83 last month. This number is close to +1 and means that both pairs are moving together most of the time in the same direction.

Since both the pairs move together, if you are trading USD/JPY and USD/CHF at the same time, it will double up your position if you go long or short on both at the same time. In other words, if you lose a trade on USD/JPY, the chances are that you will also lose the trade on USD/CHF 83% of the times.

Take another example. Suppose EUR/USD and USD/CHF have a negative correlation of -0.9 in the past month. Both the pairs are moving in opposite directions. If you go long on one, it is not a good strategy to go short on the other. It will only double up your position and increase your risk.

When investing in two pairs at the same time, try to choose such pairs that have correlations close to zero. This will make the two pairs almost independent of each other and you can invest in both of them safely.

Always keep this in mind that currency markets are constantly changing. The correlation between currency pairs also keep on changing. It would be a good idea to calculate the correlations between pairs on a monthly basis.

Learn To Choose The Right Currency Pair For Trading

The choice of the right currency pair in forex trading is very important. Many traders make the mistake of shaping opinion around only one currency, ignoring the other currency in the pair.

US Dollar is the most important currency in the global economy. It is heavily traded against other currencies like Euro, British Pound, and Yen etc. Many trader trade currency pairs involving USD. They make the mistake of only studying US Dollar while ignoring the other currency in the pair.

In the forex market, this neglect of the foreign economic conditions can greatly hinder the profitability of the trade. It also increases the odds of a loss. You need to understand a little bit of fundamental analysis when you make your choice of the currency pair.

When trading against a strong economy, the chances of failure are more. The weak currency could flop badly while the strong currency may appreciate more than you calculated.

While choosing a currency pair to trade, one should study the economies of both the currencies. Finding the strong economy/weak economy pairing is the best strategy to use when maximizing returns.

Lets take an example, FED announced its intention of containing inflation in March 22, 2005 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Most of the other currencies tanked against the dollar on the release of the announcement. Other positive economic data also reinforced the dollar.

While after the initial tanking, GBP rebounded and recovered its strength, due to the impressive economic growth of British economy at that time. Yen kept on depreciating. Japanese economy was weak in those days. Dollar gained more than 300 pips in two weeks against the Yen.

Therefore, USD strength had a much higher impact on the struggling Yen as compared to the consistently strong GBP.

When you choose a currency pair, study the economies of both the currencies in the pair. You also need to examine the behavior of various crosses. In nutshell, the best choice is always choose the strong economy/weak economy currencies.

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