Short Selling Without Knowing Short Interest Ratios Can Be Dangerous!
March 13, 2010 by Ahmad Hassam
Filed under Stock Trading
Everyone knows that when the stock prices goes up this is the best time to invest and make money. But can you make money when the stock prices go down. Well, you can with short selling. Many people have difficulty understanding short selling. So what is short selling. In essence, when you expect the price of a certain stock to go down, you borrow it from your brokers and sell it in the market. Later on you buy it back and return the stock to your broker. Since the stock price was lower when you bought it back as compared to when you sold it, you made a capital gain. This is in nutshell what is short selling.
Short selling works if the price continues to fall. If the price does not fall or retraces after sometime, you can make a hefty loss on your short position. The loans that are taken in order to go short have to be repaid! If the lender asks them or the price goes up, the trader has to buy back shares in order to make the repayment. Now, the harder it becomes to get the right number of shares in the market, the more desperate the trader will become and the higher the prices can go.
Short selling in stocks is done by investors with the expectation of a making a capital gain when they expect that stock price to go down in the near future. Short selling is also done by the fund managers to hedge their stock portfolios. Now, in other markets like the currencies, futures or the options market, you don’t have to borrow the security in order to go short. You can straight away go short by selling that security or currency in the market.
There is something very important that you need to keep an eye on when you go short selling. It is known as Short Interest Ratios. This will help you monitor the rate of short selling in the market. If the rate is too high, it means that too many investors are taking short positions and you need to avoid it. New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and NASDAQ, both report the short interest in stocks listed on them,however, this is done on a monthly basis as brokers need sometime to collect the data of shares that they have lended to their clients for shorting.
Now this number is known as the Short Interest Ratio. Short Interest Ratio is a very important number for short sellers as it can give important clues about the investor expectation to the short sellers.
So what is the Short Interest Ratio? Short Interest Ratio is the number of shares of a particular stock that has been shorted in the market. It also reports the percentage change in the short positions from the previous month. Plus the average daily volume for that stock in the same month and also the number of days of trading at the average volume that it would require the market to cover the short positions in that stock.
The problem with Short Interest Ratio is that it is not calculated frequently. It is calculated on monthly basis. So, the trader cannot use it to gauge the short positions in the market on a daily or weekly basis. However, it can give you the general trend in the market. A high short interest ratio should make you nervous if you have taken a short position in that stock as most of the investors who are short will soon become desperate to dump that stock in the market and cover their short positions.
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Doji Candlestick Pattern-Rare But Easy To Spot And Highly Profitable!
March 10, 2010 by Ahmad Hassam
Filed under Stock Market
Candlestick Charting is one of the most powerful tools in the trading arsenal of any trader. Candlestick Charts apply to any market no matter what you trade-stocks, forex, futures, options, ETFs, commodities, bonds and others. With one simple glance on the chart, you can figure out the sentiment of the buyers and sellers in the market. There are many candlestick patterns that are used as trading signals. Some are simple while others are complex. Doji Candlestick Pattern is a simple pattern that is very easy to spot. It has no body. It is formed when the opening and the closing prices are the same. So, this pattern is all wicks with no stick. It literally looks like a Cross on the chart. So you can easily spot it. But it is very rare as the security opening and closing prices are seldom equal! Doji has some variations. We will discuss these variations in this article!
In other words, the opening and the closing prices should be the same for a Doji to be formed. So for a Doji to be truly formed on a trading day, throughtout the trading day heavy buying or selling may take place but at the end of the day, the price should be where it had been at the start. In other words, the opening and the closing prices should be the same for a Doji to be formed.
When a Doji is formed with the opening and the closing prices equal, it is a signal that the battle between the bulls and the bears had been a draw during the trading day. Soon, either the bulls or the bears are going to previal. In other words, a trend reversal is about to take place.
A Dragonfly Doji pattern is unique in the sense that the opening, closing and the high prices are all the same or equal. A Dragonfly Doji is formed when the stocks opens, trades down during first part of the day. During some part of the day, the price starts to climb again and eventually closing on the high which is the same as the open.
In other words, the open, the close and the high for the day are the same for the Dragonfly Doji to form. So when a Dragonfly Doji Pattern is formed, the bears had been in control of the market at the start. But at some point in the trading day, the bulls become active and step in. Bulls start buying. This takes the prices up and at the end of the day, the security price ends up right where it had started.
Dragonfly Doji is considered to be a bullish candlestick pattern. The low on this pattern can be taken as the support level because this was the level at which the bears entered the market and started buying.
A bearish Gravestone Doji Pattern is formed when the open and close of the day is equal to the low of the day. This is the most bearish of the Doji patterns. A bearish Gravestone Doji pattern signals the start of a prolonged downtrend in the security price.
A Doji pattern is very easy to spot on the candlestick chart as there is no body just the wick. Open close and either low or high all three are equal and the candle looks more like a cross. When you spot the Doji, get ready for a trend change in the price action.
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A Shockingly Simple Momentum Indicator For Stock Trading
March 9, 2010 by Ahmad Hassam
Filed under News
Following a trend is great. But if the trend is moving quickly, you want to know that so that you can get ahead of it. If the rate of change of the trend is going up, rising prices are going to follow quickly.
Now first what is a momentum? You must have read about the momentum in high school physics.Momentum was the velocity multiplied by the mass of the object. Velocity was the rate of change. So when we talk of momentum in trading, we are talking of the rate of change of any security prices. Now. a simple way to calculate the momentum of any security price is to divide the closing price today by the closing price ten days back and then multiply it by 100!
This gives you the momentum indicator. If the prices didn’t go anywhere momentum indicator will be 100. If the prices went up, the momentum indicator will be greater than 100 and the prices went down, the momentum indicator will be less than 100. Now, a trend is expected to continue if the momentum indicator is greater than 100.
This momentum indicator tells you what is most likely to happen in the future not what happened in the past. So it is a leading indicator. You must have heard about momentum investing or you can even call it momentum trading. In momentum investing , you buy a security at a high price and sell it even at a more higher price unlike ordinary investing where you buy low and sell high. The trick is to know that the price will continue to rise when you do momentum investing. How do you know that the security prices will continue to rise in the future? By looking at the business fundamentals like the sales or profits, if you find them to be rising and accelerating at the same time the security price is rising,there is momentum behind this move!
Now, investors can also use momentum in their investing decisions. Momentum investors are looking for securities that are rising in prices especially if accompanies by acceleration in the underlying growth. The knock on momentum investing is that instead of buying low and selling high, your goal is to buy high and sell even higher.
So when you are doing momentum investing, you are looking for a security or a stock that has a potential to move big. How long this big move might take to materialize? Well, the expectation is for the big move to happen in a few weeks to a few months. Just like in ordinary physics, when a ball is set in motion, it will continue moving unless stopped. This is what the Newton’s First Law says. You can expect a security price to keep on rising as long as something drastic doesn’t happen to stop that rise. So what can be that something drastic? It can be a sudden breaking news about the misdoings of the management that have not been known to the public before. I am just giving you one example. There can be more. So before you do your momentum investing, it is always better to do some fundamental research on the company. Remember the Dot Com Bubble that burst and hurt many people a decade back. Lot of people were doing momentum investing without doing fundamental research on the stocks that they were investing in. So you need to do some fundamental research as well to ascertain that the rise in prices of a stock are sustainable over the long haul or not.
There are many way to do momentum investing. One is the price momentum that we have talked above. The other can be Earning Momentum. If you are a long haul investor who keeps an eye on the financial statements of different companies and you find that the quaterly earnings are going up steadily from one quater to another. What this means is that the stock price will also accelerate and follow suit.
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Know These Short Selling Shocking Facts
March 8, 2010 by Ahmad Hassam
Filed under News
Short selling is one of the favorite day trading strategies employed by many day traders. Many companies hate short sellers as they believe that short sellers were responsible in the fall of their stock prices. Nothing can be far from the truth. Short selling is just like anyother market mechanism that provides liquidity and better price discovery. Short selling can never destroy a company if its’ fundamentals are strong. Many stock brokers now let you short stocks with just the click of a mouse. When you sell stocks from your online brokerage account, the message asks you whether you are selling your own shares or short selling. You just need to click once on short selling and the rest is taken care of by the broker. These shares are a loan to you by the broker that you will have to return at a later date!
Now, you cannot always short a stock instantly. Most of the investors work on rumors. In some cases,a stock gets so much shorted that there are no more shares of that stock left for you or your broker to borrow anymore. In that case, you simple will have to cross your fingers and see how the other short sellers do on that stock while you search for another stock to short!
Now, shorting is one of the favorite strategies employed by day traders. A day trader may short stock on the mundane reason like its price had been going up for three days and it’s time to come down! Day traders are not fundamental traders. Day traders are simply interested in the daily volatility in the stock. Most even don’t do any financial or fundamental analysis of the companies whose stocks they are trading. Almost all are technicians or what you call technical analysis experts.
Now, you cannot straight away short a stock as there are mechanisms in place employed by msot of the stock exchanges that don’t want a massive shorting attack on a stock. There is the famous Uptick Rule that has been put in place to prevent that from happening. What the Uptick Rule means is that you cannot short a stock unless it moves up on the last trade. This rule has been placed to prevent a stock from being driven down to almost zero by short sellers. In simple words, once the stock starts to move down, you cannot short it. You will have to wait for its price to move up on the last trade, before your short selling order can be executed by the broker.
Now you have to be careful when shorting a stock as certain risks are involved. In theory, there is no limit on how high a stock price can go high. So when betting on something going wrong, if you yourself go wrong, the potential loss in case of a stock price going up can be immense.
There is something known as Short Squeeze. A short squeeze happens when the stock of the company that you have shorted has some good news that drives the stock prices high. Now if this happens, many short sellers might lose money and even get margin calls. When they get desperate to buy back the stock, its prices go even higher hurting them more.
As said before, companies, investors and many brokers hate short sellers. They think that short sellers had intentionally driven down the stock prices. So sometimes, they will spread rumors of good news to create a momentary short squeeze. Sometimes, a campaign will be started by the owners of a particular stock instructing their brokers not to loan out their stocks to short sellers. So if you have already shorted that stock, you might get a call from your broker to return that stock immediately. In such a case, you will have to immediately return the stock even if it doesn’t make any sense to you!
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Bullish Necklines, the Bearish Meeting Lines and the bearish Piercing Line Candlestick Patterns
March 6, 2010 by Ahmad Hassam
Filed under News
Trend trading is one of the most profitable trading strategies. You must have heard the oft repeated quote that Trend is your friend. But trend can only be your friend if you know how it is going to behave in the future. If you don’t know that the trend is going to reverse soon, you are going to end up with a heavy loss. Candlestick charting is one of the ways to predict the future of a trend whether it is going to reverse itself in the near future or continue for sometime. Bullish Necklines is a candlestick pattern that can help you know whether the trend is continuing or not. It is a trend confirmation pattern. There are types of Necklines Patterns; one is the In Neck and the other is the Out Neck Pattern.
The candle formed on the setup day should be a long bullish candle that shows a lot of buying. On the signal day a bearish candle either long or short is formed with its closing price very near the close of the setup day.
Now,there can be two types of Neckline Patterns depending on the closing prices on the signal and the setup days. If the closing price on the signal day is almost near the closing price on the setup day, it is an On Neck Pattern. In case, if the closing price on the first day is little lower than the closing price on the signal day, it is a In Neck Pattern.
You might be thinking that this is not much of a difference. Well, this is true but nevertheless, you should be aware of this slight difference between the In Neck and the On Neck Patterns. Both these patterns are telling the same thing that the uptrend is going to continue in the near future. So even if you are not able to differentiate between the In Neck and the On Neck, don’t worry much. You must at least be able to identify that a Neckline Pattern has been formed.
Now, let’s talk about a trend reversal candlestick pattern; The Bearish Meeting Line. On the first day or what you call the setup day, you will find a long bullish candle.What this means is that heavy buying took place throughout the day. On the second day or what you call the signal day, you will find a gap opening. This gap entices the sellers to start selling that continues throughout the day. This will result in a long bearish candle on the second or what you call the signal day. This long bearish candle should have a close very near the open of the low of the day as well as the close should be very near to the close on the first or what you call the setup day. This is a Bearish Meeting Line Trend Reversal Pattern. What is means is that the trend is about to reverse itself soon!
In case of the bearish piercing line candlestick pattern, the setup day is bullish with long bullish candle. The signal day is bearish with an opening higher than the setup days high. What this means is that on the signal day sellers came rushing in, pushing prices down through the setup days opening price and below its midpoint.
This pattern usually occurs in the last stages of an uptrend and when it happens, it means that the trend is about to reverse itself. When this Bearish Piercing Line Candlestick Pattern is formed, it means that the price action has lost it’s momentum.
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Harami And The Harami Cross Candlestick Patterns Can Make You Rich!
March 1, 2010 by Ahmad Hassam
Filed under Stock Market
Harami is a two stick candlestick pattern or what you may call a two day candlestick pattern observed on the daily charts. The first day candle is longer than the second day candle. Harami candlestick pattern can be bullish as well as bearish.
This is an important signal that bulls are now active and trying to take hold of the market. This means that the downtrend will be soon over and an uptrend is about to start.A bullish Harami is formed in a downtrend when the first day candle is very bearish. But on the second day, the bulls come into play and beat the bears out of the market by taking the prices higher. However, the bulls are not completely successful and the second day is still lower than the first day open and the first day high is not crossed.
The open is higher than the close of the last day on the signal day. However, the bulls close the day higher than the open.On the second day when the Harami is formed, the bears are still slightly ahead of the bulls at the start of trading.
Bulls and bears are always fighting with each other for the control of the market. When a bullish Harami is formed what this means is that the bulls are still cautious about their success and fear that the bears might return to take the prices lower again. However, when this does not happen, it gives confidence to the bulls encouraging more buying in the market and the reversal of the trend.
What this means is that you need to confirm it with the price action on the following day. Now, like most of the candlestick patterns, a Harami can fail. Always place the stop loss first when you trade. When you spot a Harami, place the stop loss near the open of the second day.
Harami pattern has got few variations. On of them is the Bullish Harami Cross Pattern. Now,a Bullish Harami Cross is not formed very frequently. But when it does form, it means an sudden trend reversal. So you should act immediatetly when you spot it. The first day in case of a Bullish Harami Cross is a bearish candle. The signal day or the second day is a Bullish Doji with an open higher than the close of the first day and the close lower than the open of the first day.
When a bearish Harami is formed what this indicates is that bears have taken hold of the market now and are about to push the prices down signalling a downtrend is about to start! The bearish Harami is similar to a bullish Harami. It is formed in an uptrend. The first day is a usual bullish candle that forms in an uptrend. The second day candle is a bearish candle. It’s open is lower than the close of the first day. And it’s close is higher than the open of the first day.
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Back Testing Your Trading System-Know These Shocking Limitations
February 27, 2010 by Ahmad Hassam
Filed under Stock Trading
Your trading system needs thorough testing before you decide to trade live with it. A trading system might comprise of a set of indicators. You need to know how well your trading system and its set of indicators work in a particular market.
For this you can do back testing. Back testing is a method that uses historical data to test how well your indicators work in a particular market. You can use back testing software that enables you to look at the past market data and test how well the indicators and your trading system have worked in the past market.
Now, back testing is done with historical data. What this means is that although your trading system might perform very well with back testing, it may not work in the present market. Market conditions keep on changing and what worked in the past may not work in the present. In the same way, what didn’t work in the past may start working now.
In other words, no two trades work out in exact the same way twice. SO you have to be careful when looking at the back testing results and take it with a pinch of salt. However, there are still some advantages of back testing a trading system.
Back testing can give you a feel how a particular market behaves under certain conditions. Back testing can also spot you certain general characteristics of the market like the seasonal trends and market tendencies.
For example, some markets especially the commodities market is highly seasonal and cyclical in nature. Now in other markets, you might not find any seasonal trends. For example, there is very little seasonality in curreny market or the bond market. In case of the stock market, there is much talk of the January Effect. Well, it is there no doubt about it. Some years, it is highly pronounced and others it is not that pronounced. Similarly stock prices tend to rise at the end of each month and the first few days of the new months. The reason for this is that many institutional investors tend to put the new funds to work at the end of the month and the beginning of the new month!
Back testing can also help you establish the amount of time a particular market tends to run in a certain direction. For example, in case of US Dollar Index, its trend lines tend to last for months to years.
Now when you back test your trading system and the set of indicators, you can check their accuracy. For example, if you using a trading system based on moving average crossovers, you can back test it using different combinations. Then monitor each combination under live conditions to see which works the best.
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The Discipline of the Trade
February 24, 2010 by Nelson Pellew
Filed under Stock Market
Wedging yourself into the financial realms does not entail anything more than creating a user name and a password and possessing a valid bank account or credit card. The rest, as they say, is a piece of cake. To learn to trade does not necessarily require anything more than being able to interpret the market trends and making the right trade at the right time, with the right stock, of course.
If its seems like I am being facetious, I apologize, but often this is the mentality of the Joe Palooka day trader who succeeds at doing little more than frittering away his hard-earned life savings. For the unskilled day trader, this is tantamount to a half-drunken night in Las Vegas. Effectively growing your financial nest egg will entail much more than an E-Trade account, though, like a hand of blackjack, there is always an element of timing and luck involved.
No trader worth his or her salt would start from scratch. Indeed, the optimal day trader will have learned a great deal from a qualified financial training course — or at the very least, an online course or two. Jumping, cold turkey, into day trading would be no different than waking up, showering, slipping on a pair of trainers, and running the New York Marathon. Best of luck, see you in the infirmary.
Any kind of financial future requires a bit of planning and good deal of patience — to say nothing of some common sense. Do not begin this foray lightly. Moreover, do not begin by reallocating your grandfather’s $30,000 trust into Apple stocks — no matter how well Mr. Jobs happens to be doing. Begin with a modest amount, perhaps a fourth or less of your total portfolio.
The downfall of most unskilled (and indeed some highly skilled) traders is a complete lack of discipline. Of course, this entails a healthy dose of forethought. Wait before you trade. Weigh as many factors as possible. Trading too soon or too late will never amount substantial gains. You need stay the course and ride out fluctuations in the market that could well prove to be temporary.
Happy days — now you too can learn to trade online like a skilled trader. To be sure, with the proper training and insight, you could well grow your nest egg. But beware the downfall of most traders — be patient and keep your composure.
categories: learn to trade,stocks,day trading,finances
When Must One Take Advantage Of Automated Forex Trading System
February 23, 2010 by Jasper Lemanz
Filed under Stock Trading
The currency trading industry is a fast paced industry that requires more than investment. One must be knowledgeable in attaining better decision to gain from the investment. It is not excuse that one is a beginner to fail in this industry. He must constantly be on his guard to avoid missing out on an opportunity. Thus an automated forex trading system is beneficial in achieving this goal.
Buying and selling global currency is a risky venture. The involvement of global financial establishments has made it more competitive especially in the onset of the economic crisis. Although it is highly profitable one should closely track his progress to gain from the venture.
The trading requires more than 24 hours of monitoring. If one is not committed in monitoring the market every second he is given the option of hiring a financial expert or using a specialized program to monitor the market movement. In this way you do not have to worry much of losing an opportunity.
The popularity of automated forex trading system has resulted from the desire of many traders to monitor their investment without catching some snores. Since it is a software you can entrust it to create real time reports to forecast possible buying or selling of currency.
Invest $50 dollars and see how it goes. Trading does not have to be frustrating with the use of this system. It allows you to see possibilities with less the effort in your end. It is advantageous especially when you are just learning the industry.
However be reminded that the system is just a tool. Decisions are all up to you. Educating yourself with the basics can arm you in gaining better decisions in the future. The software can only forecast any transaction in the market it cannot tell you when to buy or sell.
Just a reminder though never completely invest your personal finances. It does not harm to leave a little for yourself. In this manner you do not have to end up losing more than usual.
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Stock Market Trading Tips: Pulling In Money With Triangles
February 22, 2010 by Todd Dornan
Filed under Stock Market
Being able to recognize chart patterns is part of technical analysis stock trading. These patterns offer an significant confirmation for the coming trend move. They are among the most dependable, yet uncomplicated to use technical analysis tools. They are patterns that emerge on the charts of stocks that provide you with forecasting tools of coming price movement. Some patterns are more reliable than others for predicting the price of a stock at a future point in time.
Price can be predicted by patterns because in essence, patterns are actually nothing more than an attempt to predict trend continuation or trend reversal at the earliest possible moment in time. These patterns are often the very first initiation that investors have to charting a stock. These formations are just a way for the average stock trader to correctly position himself for a greater probability of making money in this backstabbing world of buying and selling stock.
These patterns repeat themselves in all time frames and in all markets because these patterns are a result of human nature and emotional reactions to the markets. These patterns appear over and over again for the reason that people do not change and their emotions will cause them to make the same mistakes time and time again.
Impressive Triangle Patterns
Triangles are some of the most familiar chart patterns used in technical analysis today. The three types of triangles, which vary in form and inference, are the ascending triangle, descending triangle, and the symmetrical triangle. Though the form of the triangle is significant of more importance is the direction that a stock takes when it breaks out of the triangle pattern.
The reason these formations are so famous is that they are pretty easy to recognize and are accurate market indicators. Technical traders ought to show caution in acting on them ahead of time, though (i.e. trying to guess the direction of the breakout). Triangle patterns are not 100% accurate but instead are closer to 75% accurate, so it is essential that you use a stop loss. This will protect you from a large loss on the trade.
Noble Ascending Triangle
The ascending triangle is made up of a flat upper trendline and a rising lower trendline. This formation suggests that the bulls are able to take the stock up to the flat upper trendline resistance over and over again while the bears are losing the ability to take the stock back down to the lower support line (i.e. rising lower trendline).
The ascending triangle is thought of as a more accurate formation when they are formed in an uptrend. Buy signals are given once the price does a breakout above the resistance level. An ascending triangle is bullish in both up trends and down trends. The presence of an ascending triangle pattern often signifies a positive trend concerning the price per share of the stock you are analyzing.
Wicked Descending Triangle
The descending triangle is consists of a falling upper trendline and a flat lower trendline. This formation suggests that the bears can take the stock down to the flat lower trendline support over and over again while the bulls are losing the ability to take the stock back up to the upper resistance line (specifically a falling upper trendline).
Descending triangles form during an overall downtrend as the flat support level and the down-trending resistance level that encompass the consolidation zone converge. They frequently indicate a continuation of the previous trend. Descending triangles, with a previous uptrend, are anticipated to break up and out, rather than down and out. Descending triangles give technical traders the opportunity to make substantial profits over a brief period of time. The most common price targets are commonly set to equal the entry price minus the vertical height between the two trendlines.
Pale Symmetrical Triangles
Symmetrical triangles form with lower highs and higher lows. Because of their shape, they can act as either a continuation or a reversal pattern. The price movement inside the pattern is somewhat neutral, but in time will do a breakout and go back into the direction of the original trend.
Symmetrical triangle patterns form when the stock being charted achieves increasingly higher daily low trading prices, while at the same time exhibiting lower intraday highs. This pattern of activity forms a triangle that is proportioned in nature.
Symmetrical triangle patterns are regularly referred to as spring coils. This is because, as time progresses, prices trade within a ever smaller range, with the market making lower highs and higher lows. Emotion builds into the apex of the formation and sooner or later a breakout occurs. Breakouts usually happen in the middle or the final third of the triangle as with the other sloping triangles.
Symmetrical triangle breakouts are outstanding entry points, when accompanied by high volume.
Final Thoughts On Breakouts
Breakouts from a triangle, that has become narrow, can be significant because buying or selling interest has accumulated while the price has consolidated. Breakouts usually occur after going about two-thirds to three-quarters of the distance between the start of the formation and the apex, but there are exceptions. In addition, price can break out to the upside, in which case the pattern becomes a continuation pattern rather than a reversal pattern.
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categories: technical analysis,stock market,day trading,stock trading,investing,finance






